This analysis summarizes and reflects on the following research: Clayton, G., Nygård, H. M., Rustad, S. A., & Strand, H. (2023). Costs and cover: Explaining the onset of ceasefires in civil conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 67(7-8), 1296-1324. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027221129195
Talking Points
- Ceasefires represent strategic deliberations for conflicting parties, as they weigh the potential advantages against the drawbacks.
- When honored by conflicting parties, ceasefires reduce violence immediately and create opportunities for meaningful conflict de-escalation and resolution.
- Heightened conflict intensity generally increases ceasefire likelihood, while unilateral violence by rebels towards civilians negatively impacts the likelihood of ceasefire agreements.
- International support for rebels appears to enhance the chances of ceasefires, although the effect of support for the government side remains inconclusive.
- Chances of a ceasefire are higher in the early stages of a conflict, then decreasing temporarily before resurging.
- Mediation increases ceasefire likelihood, though further research is needed to disentangle its specific mechanisms.
Key Insight for Informing Practice
In the context of the Israeli government’s genocidal assault on Gaza, a permanent ceasefire is critically urgent given the high number of civilian casualties and the destruction of life-sustaining infrastructure. It is critical for peace advocates to highlight this civilian harm, stress the importance of protecting civilians, and advocate for measures to reduce harm to them—all of which can make support for a ceasefire more likely.
Summary
Ceasefires are common features of violent conflicts worldwide. For example, from 1989 to 2020, 2,202 ceasefires were declared globally. In 2020 alone, conflicts in Colombia, Sudan, Myanmar, and Yemen all had ceasefire agreements. For conflict resolution and peacebuilding specialists, a ceasefire, or “an arrangement between conflict parties to suspend violent hostilities from a specific point in time,” is among the simplest ways to achieve an immediate reduction in violence. Yet, a systematic global analysis of ceasefires has been lacking. Given the immediate benefits of ceasefires with regards to stopping violence and their potential to de-escalate a conflict and initiate constructive peacebuilding measures, Govinda Clayton, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri A. Rustad, and Håvard Strand provide the first systematic global analysis of ceasefire declarations, asking why and under what conditions ceasefires occur.
Research has found that ceasefires offer various benefits to conflict parties, such as access to humanitarian aid, temporary suspension of violence, and signaling of peaceful intentions. However, determining whether the motives behind a ceasefire are genuine or strategic poses a challenge, as parties may conceal their true intentions, leading to wariness among both sides about potential military advantages to their opponents. Additionally, domestic audience costs and strategic calculations differ between state and non-state actors, further complicating the decision-making process surrounding ceasefires. Therefore, ceasefires represent strategic deliberations for conflicting parties, as they weigh the potential advantages against the drawbacks.
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Benefits of ceasefires for parties seeking to manage or resolve their dispute |
Costs of Ceasefires |
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Allow access to humanitarian aid |
May deter cooperative actions due to audience costs |
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Suspend violence temporarily |
May result in non-state actors resisting ceasefire to maintain leverage |
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Contain violence, reducing casualties |
Risk inspiring further mobilization or resistance |
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Signal peaceful intent |
Risk legitimizing non-state actors |
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Demonstrate command and control |
Signify acceptance of status quo of superior state by non-state group |
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Increase civil society participation |
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Create environment conducive for negotiations |
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Benefits of ceasefires for parties with “devious intentions” other than seeking peace |
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Provide time for resupply and regrouping |
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Boost morale of troops and constituents |
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Consolidate territorial control |
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Table 1: Costs and benefits of ceasefires
The authors develop two main arguments recognizing how conflict dynamics and potential costs (of agreeing or not agreeing to a ceasefire) influence the likelihood of ceasefires. (See table “Costs and Benefits of Ceasefires.”) First, they suggest that when conflicts become more severe, such as when violence escalates, and civilians suffer more, the parties involved are more willing to agree to a ceasefire. Second, they propose that ceasefires are also more probable when the political costs of reaching an agreement are not as high. This often occurs when the parties have political support or cover.
The authors conducted a statistical analysis of ceasefire data for conflicts (1989-2020) within countries between two parties to test the main arguments. They focused on the declaration of a ceasefire, regardless of whether violence actually decreased afterward, and tested a series of hypotheses related to conflict costs and political factors. To operationalize the hypotheses, they used various indicators such as combatant and civilian fatalities, one-sided violence by non-state armed groups, duration of conflicts, external support, mediation efforts, and the occurrence of significant religious holidays. The analysis revealed the following findings.
There is a strong association between conflict dynamics and ceasefires, and a partial association between political cover and ceasefires. Heightened conflict intensity generally increases ceasefire likelihood, while unilateral violence by rebels towards civilians negatively impacts the likelihood of ceasefire agreements. International support for rebels appears to enhance the chances of ceasefires, although the effect of support for the government side remains inconclusive. Ceasefires are more probable in the early stages of a conflict, with their likelihood then decreasing temporarily before resurging. Additionally, mediation increases ceasefire likelihood, though further research is needed to disentangle its specific mechanisms. The UN Secretary-General’s call for a global ceasefire in March 2020 notably elevated ceasefire probability, though subsequent studies suggest limited effectiveness in reducing violence. Furthermore, Christmas correlates with increased ceasefire occurrences, contrasting with Eid al-Fitr, which does not.
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Figure 1: Results based on research hypotheses
In conclusion, this research underscores the strategic nature of ceasefires, highlighting the complex interplay of factors influencing conflict parties’ decisions. Understanding the role of conflict dynamics and political cover can assist in utilizing ceasefires as critical conflict resolution and peacebuilding tools.
Informing Practice
One of the most urgent crises worldwide is the “deteriorated situation” between Israel and Palestine, which has resulted in global calls for a ceasefire. For over six months, the Israeli government has responded to the violent attack by Hamas with a genocidal assault on Gaza. This has resulted in the deaths of over 33,000 Palestinians, including 13,800 children, and counting. The destruction of life and infrastructure (healthcare, agriculture, and places of worship) in Gaza since October 2023 has severely worsened what were already dire conditions—so dire that in 2018 the UN deemed Gaza as “inhabitable by 2020.” The sustained blocking of humanitarian aid and medical supplies by the Israeli government has made famine imminent. An immediate and permanent ceasefire is the minimum required to stop the killing and suffering.
Advocacy groups promoting peace have launched several critical campaigns—for instance, exerting pressure on the United Nations Security Council ceasefire resolution vote, advocating for greater humanitarian access and assistance, demanding an end to military funding to Israel, and urging U.S. Americans to cast “uncommitted” votes in the presidential primary elections to register sharp disagreement with the Biden Administration’s policies. The results of this study could assist these advocacy groups in highlighting specific factors that influence the likelihood of a ceasefire to support their advocacy efforts concerning Gaza. First, understanding these factors allows advocates to educate and pressure policymakers to develop more effective strategies. In particular, we know that the intensity of a conflict, including the extent of civilian casualties, can influence the likelihood of ceasefire agreements. It is therefore critical for peace advocates both to continue to highlight the harm to civilians to make support for a ceasefire more likely, and to stress the importance of protecting civilians and advocating for measures to reduce harm to them. Such efforts can create an environment conducive to ceasefire agreements.
Second, recognizing that ceasefires are more probable in the early stages of a conflict (before the first nine months) and then become temporarily less probable before becoming more likely again suggests the importance of timing in initiating ceasefire negotiations. Efforts to establish a ceasefire are critically urgent now, given the alarming number of civilians killed by the Israeli military and with research suggesting a narrowing window of time when a ceasefire is likely to occur.
Third, the research highlights the role of mediation and international support in facilitating ceasefire agreements. Advocacy groups can create space and public support for policymakers and international organizations to prioritize mediation efforts so that the costs of continuing the violence outweigh the benefits.
Overall, the research underscores the importance of ceasefires as critical tools in conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts. It is important to note that statistical analysis of datasets on social conflict and its resolutions requires careful consideration before we can draw general conclusions. However, this study can assist peace advocates in enhancing their ability to promote sustainable peace in regions affected by conflict, such as Gaza, by taking into account the factors that influence the likelihood of a ceasefire and addressing the associated challenges. [PH & AZ]
Continued Reading
Vaughn, A. (1995). Concluding hostilities: Humanitarian provisions in cease-fire agreements. Military Law Review 148: 186-273. https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/milrv148&div=7&id=&page=
Amnesty International. (2024, April 5). International action vital in Rafah as UN resolution is ignored. Retrieved April 18, 2024, from https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/04/time-is-running-out-for-international-action-to-protect-civilians-and-prevent-atrocity-crimes-in-rafah-as-un-security-council-resolution-is-ignored/
Amnesty International. (2024, March 26). UN resolution must pave way for enduring ceasefire to alleviate mass suffering in Gaza. Retrieved April 18, 2024, from https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/03/un-resolution-must-pave-way-for-enduring-ceasefire-to-alleviate-mass-suffering-in-gaza/
Chomsky, N., & Pappé, I. (2015). On Palestine. Haymarket Books. https://shorturl.at/hixUY
Dunbar-Ortiz, R. (2015). An Indigenous Peoples’ history of the United States. Beacon Press.
Khalidi, R. (2021). The hundred years’ war on Palestine: A history of settler colonialism and resistance, 1917–2017. Picador. https://shorturl.at/mzV09
Said, E. W. (2015). The question of Palestine. Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group. https://shorturl.at/dfxzG
Maçães, B. (2024, January 10). Gaza and the end of western hypocrisy. Time Magazine. Retrieved April 18, 2024, from https://time.com/6553708/gaza-end-of-western-hypocrisy-essay/
United Nations. (2023, October 10). History of the question of Palestine. Retrieved April 18, 2024, from https://www.un.org/unispal/history/
United Nations. (2024, March 26). Gaza: Security Council passes resolution demanding ‘an immediate ceasefire’ during Ramadan. UN News. Retrieved April 18, 2024, from https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147931
War Prevention Initiative. (2023, November 21). Navigating the war on Gaza. Retrieved April 18, 2024, from https://warpreventioninitiative.org/2023/navigating-the-war-on-gaza/
Organizations
Ceasefire (Centre for Civilian Rights): https://www.ceasefire.org/
CodePink: https://www.codepink.org/
Jewish Voice for Peace: https://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org/
Progressive International: https://progressive.international/ | https://act.progressive.international/out/
Win Without War: https://winwithoutwar.org/
Key Words: ceasefire, conflict de-escalation, conflict management, conflict resolution, peacebuilding, Israel, Palestine, Gaza
Photo credit: Joe Flood via flickr
